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08 October 2022, Saturday | NIAS Europe Daily Brief #327
EM Daily Focus
By Padmashree Anandhan
Latvia Elections 2022: Three takeaways
On 02 October, the New Unity party was declared winner by the Central Election Commission upon the majority of votes in the Saeima elections. On 01 October, 14th parliamentary elections were held in Latvia to elect the leader and the Members of Parliament. In total 19 political parties competed in the election with at least 1800 candidates running for four-year term, out of 1800, 100 members will be elected by the people. The parties include, New Unity, Union of Greens and Farmers, National Alliance, Socialist Democratic Party “Harmony” and United List are some of the parties contesting the election.
Election results
For a party to become a member of the Saeima should have more than five per cent of the total vote share. The results announced by the Central Election Commission showed the vote share of the parties, the New Unity led by Krišjānis Kariņš won the most with 18.97 per cent, which had received only 6.7 per cent in 2018. The Union of Greens and Farmers led by Armands Krauze increased to 12.44 per cent from 9.9 per cent in 2018, posing as the opposition party. In the third place, the United List received 11.01 per cent, which did not exist in the 2018 elections. Followed by National Alliance with 9.29 per cent, For Stability! with 6.8 per cent, Latvia First with 6.24 per cent, and Progressives with 6.16 per cent. The Socialist Democratic Party “Harmony,” The Conservatives, Development/For! and National Alliance who topped the 2018 elections, were observed to have lost their majority to the newer parties. Especially Harmony which is a party that represents Latvia’s ethnic Russian minority that had received 20 per cent of votes in 2018 but has declined to seven per cent in 2022.
Three takeaways
First, political stability to continue. The centre-right party of Karins has proved its ability to manage the COVID-19, stand against Russia and most importantly held the coalition of National Alliance, the Conservatives and Development/For! along with other small parties together for full four years without preventing the split like the previous governments. With the party’s win, Latvia’s political stability and support for Ukraine is expected to remain intact.
Second, decline of the social democratic party. The Harmony party which consists of Russian speaking minority has seen an abnormal shift down due to growing support for Ukraine, and the New Unity’s coalition success in ensuring safety for Latvia from Russia through closer engagement with NATO crumbled the vote share for Harmony.
Third, an advantage for the EU and NATO. In the 2022 elections occurring across Europe, the right-wing parties are observed to be on the rise in case of France, Sweden, and Italy posing a threat to the unity of the EU. Latvia will be an exception and a relief with the centre-right winning the elections. The New Unity coalition in place means a boon for NATO to continue its military cooperation in the Baltic Sea and for the EU to implement its sanction. Winning of Harmony in Latvia would not only shun this down but could have threated the Baltic posture against Russia.
References
“All votes counted; seven lists make it into the Saeima”, eng.lsm.lv, 02 October 2022
“Latvian premier's center-right party wins national election,” The Washington Post, 02 October 2022
“Latvia: Exit polls put PM's New Unity party ahead in vote amid Ukraine war and soaring inflation”, Euronews, 01 October 2022
“Latvia — 2022 general election”, POLITICO
“14th Saeima elections”, cvk.lv
“Factbox: Latvia's parliamentary election: parties, coalitions”, Reuters, 30 September 2022
IN BRIEF
By Padmashree Anandhan
ITALY
Italy’s outgoing government announced new LGBTQ strategy
On 07 October, Equal Opportunities Minister Elena Bonetti of the outgoing government announced a new strategy to counter discrimination against LGBTQ. The move is seen as tactical as the new government of Georgia Meloni will be coming into position soon. Brothers of Italy party has been against the LGBTQ and gender fluidness since it’s evolution, considering the threats the community might challenge, the outgoing government has taken the step. The new strategy 2022-2025 proposed “specific anti-LGBTQ discrimination clauses” into the state’s labour agreement. In la Republica (Italy daily) Bonetti said: “The strategy makes rights concrete with a series of actions against violence and marginalization.” (“Italy adopts new LGBTQ rights plan before right-wing takeover,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2022)
THE UK
Continuing transport worker strike stalls local travel
On 08 October, BBC reported on the ongoing rail worker strike in the UK. Close to 40,000 rail, maritime, and transport employees part of 15 unions have stepped out against demands on increase of pay, and job conditions. With only five train services running, the government has instructed the people to restrict travel and have announced that only on return of the workers the services are expected to resume. Similar strikes were held under the RMT, TSSA and drivers' unions which closed down 90 per cent of services in the previous week. (“Rail strikes: Only one in five trains running in latest action,” BBC, 08 October 2022)
REGIONAL
NATO-UK conduct Joint Warrior maritime exercise in North Sea
On 07 October, NATO reported on the “Joint Warrior” bi-annual exercise held along with UK in the North Sea. The exercise is scheduled from 01 to 12 October using 45 ships, 30 aircrafts, submarines, crew and naval forces. European member-states including Denmark, France’s FS Somme, German Navy FGS Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Italy, Latvia, Royal Netherlands Navy flagship HNLMS Tromp, Norway’s HNoMS Roald Amundsen and auxiliary vessel HNoMS Maud, Poland, and the US from the trans-Atlantic took part in the exercise. The exercise mainly aimed at improving the maritime capabilities in case of multi-threat scenario, protection against ground and air attacks, and involved experimentation of unmanned systems. (“NATO Ships Participate In UK Exercise Joint Warrior 22-2, nato.int, 07 October 2022)
NATO on including gender in military spectrum
On 07 October, the NATO reported on the proceedings of the gender inclusivity session held during the committee meeting. Lieutenant-Colonel Diana Morais stated the reasons to integrate gender into the NATO and outlined the steps taken by NATO to bring gender inclusivity in the military spectrum. According to Morais, including of gender in terms of analysis, and planning process helps in improving the understanding of the society and to detect threats. Therefore, it was key in recruiting both men and women into the allied armed forces. Till now NATO has used education and training, leadership development, and recognition of resources as aspects to integrate the gender perspective. (“The people behind the policies: integrating gender perspectives into the military,” nato.int, 07 October 2022)
EU to send mission to smoothen the tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan
On 07 October, Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev and Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan settled on EU’s decision to send its mission in the border region between both countries. The agreement was negotiated in the European Political Community meeting in Prague. EU’s plan on sending mission is aimed at reducing Russia’s influence in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, bring confidence between both, and install border cooperations. (“Armenia, Azerbaijan agree to EU mission along their border,” Deutsche Welle, 07 October 2022)
War in Ukraine: Day 226
By Rishma Banerjee
War on the Ground
On 06 October, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met the IAEA, Director General Rafael Grossi. He thanked Grossi for coordinating the release of the Director General of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) Ihor Murashov, who remained in capture with the Russia’s forces. Grossi said that the decision by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin to consider the ZNPP to be under Russia’s ownership was a violation of international law. He added that the IAEA will mediate the situation.
On 06 October, Zelenskyy also mentioned that since 01 October, more than 500 square kilometers of territory in the Kherson region have been deoccupied from Russian control. On 07 October, Ukraine’s Operational Command South, Head, Natalia Humeniuk confirmed the same on the freeing of 29 settlements. In Kharkiv, Ukrainian police provided an update about the evidences of torture found in Kharkiv. According to the head of the investigative department, bodies of 266 women and 19 children were found.
On the same day, Ukraine spokesperson Kyrylo Tymoshenko took part in the "Ukraine During the War, Economy, Security, Energy, Recovery Prospects" conference in Warsaw. Citing inadequate funds, Tymoshenko called for further financial help and emphasized the need to hasten the reconstruction of infrastructure in Ukraine as a part of the “Fast Recovery Plan,” so that Ukrainians can return home from evacuation.
On 07 October, Kyiv Post reported that many Ukrainian soldiers who were a part of the Azov Regiment were giving statements about the torture they faced while in Russian captivity. They gave statements to government investigators for future prosecutions, if the Russian army and officials should be tried for war crimes.
The Moscow View
Claims by Russia
The Deputy Prime Minister, Dmitry Chernyshenko attended a meeting regarding the partial conscription. He announced a new scheme, where Russian women willing to participate in the operation in Ukraine could be sent to work in hospitals or as volunteers. However, he added that while women could volunteer; it was not necessary for them to be part of the reservist force.
On 07 October, Russia's foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov responded to Zelenskyy's comment about a “pre-emptive strike on Russia.” Lavrov said that the comment further warranted Russia's military operation in Ukraine. Speaking at Russia's party commission, he pointed out that Ukraine's request for nuclear weapons strengthened the justification for Russia's invasion. He said: "We cannot turn a blind eye to the reckless actions of the Kiev regime which are aimed at creating risks of using various kinds of weapons of mass destruction." Lavrov also criticized, Ukraine was stockpiling illegitimate military-biological weapons and criticized the move.
The West View
Responses from the US and Europe
On 07 September, Germany reported on the total number of Ukrainian refugees who accounted more than one million. The Interior Minister expressed the growing difficulty in accommodating the refugee influx.
On 07 October, US President Joe Biden made stark comments about the renewal of the nuclear debate. He said that the world would face an "Armageddon" if Putin went through with his threat of using tactical nuclear weapons. He invoked the example of the Cuban Missile Crisis and said: “We have the threat of a nuclear weapon if in fact things continue down the path they are going… He’s not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological or chemical weapons because his military is, you might say, significantly underperforming.”
On 06 October, AP News reported on two different economic futures given by the managing director of International Monetary Fund, Kristalina Georgieva and the US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Georgieva said that the economic outlook of the world is likely to get worse before it gets better, as recession rates are rising. She also said that due to the Ukraine war and the remnant fallouts of the COVID-19 the current economic environment was going through a “period of historic fragility.” Yellen said that the US was now focusing on making longer-term investments to bolster the global economy. She also promoted ambitious policy solutions.
The Global Fallouts
Implications of the Ukraine war
On 07 October, Japan’s Cabinet approved a new set of sanctions for Russia, after its annexation of four regions in Ukraine. On this issue, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Kihara Seiji said that the referendums are a violation of international law and infringe on Ukraine’s sovereignty. As per the new sanctions, 81 additional people and nine more organizations will be added to the list of those whose assets will be frozen.
Also on 07 October, the UN Human Rights Council approved a motion to appoint a new expert to examine the alleged human rights violations by Russia in Ukraine. Accusing Russia of installing a "climate of fear," 17 members of the UN body voted in favor, six members voted against it while 24 abstained. The motion marks the first time that the UNHRC has appointed a Special Rapporteur to examine the rights record of a permanent member of the UNSC.
On 07 October, the Nobel Peace Prize for 2022 was announced. Jailed Belarusian activist Ales Byalyatski, Russian rights group Memorial and Ukraine's Centre for Civil Liberties won the award. This year’s recipients can be viewed as a criticism of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and is in line with the Nobel prizes awarded during the Cold War era, when Soviet dissidents Andrei Sakharov and Alexander Solzhenitsyn won for peace or literature. Norway’s Nobel Committee chair Berit Reiss-Andersen said: “We believe that it is a war that is a result of an authoritarian regime, aggressively committing an act of aggression,” and thus the prize had been given to “three outstanding champions of human rights, democracy and peaceful co-existence.”
References
Jay Beecher, “UN Nuclear Watchdog Chief Heads to Kyiv for Talks,” Kyiv Post, 06 October, 2022
“President discussed safety issues at the Zaporizhzhia NPP with the Director General of the IAEA,” president.gov.ua, 06 October 2022
“Since the beginning of October, more than half a thousand square kilometers have been liberated from the Russian occupiers in the Kherson region alone - address by the President of Ukraine,” president.gov.ua, 06 October 2022
“Russia Pummels South With Strikes as Zelensky Heralds Ukrainian Advances,” The New York Times, 07 October, 2022
“Armed Forces of Ukraine liberate 29 settlements in Kherson region,” Ukrinform, 07 October 2022
“Kyrylo Tymoshenko takes part in "Ukraine During the War. Economy. Security. Energy. Recovery Prospects" conference in Warsaw,” president.gov.ua, 07 October 2022
“In Russia, they proposed a mechanism for attracting women to participate in a special operation,” LENTA.RU, 07 October 2022
“Kiev’s bipolar rhetoric on nukes approved by West, diplomat says,” TASS, 07 October 2022
“Lavrov: Zelensky’s preemptive strike on Russia remark justifies need for special operation,” TASS, 07 October 2022
“Erdogan and Putin discuss improving ties, ending Ukraine war: Erdogan’s office,” Alarabiya News, 07 October 2022
Julian Borger, “Biden warns world would face ‘Armageddon’ if Putin uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine,” The Guardian, 07 October 2022
Fatima Hussein “IMF warns of higher recession risk and darker global outlook,” AP News, 06 October 2022
“Latvia supports Ukraine's accession to EU and NATO - Karins,” The Baltic Times, 07 October 2022
“Japan's Cabinet decides to impose more sanctions on Russia,” nhk.or.jp, 07 October 2022
Emma Farge, “UN body votes to establish Russia human rights investigator, Moscow protests,” Reuters, 08 October 2022
Nora Buli and Gwladys Fouche “In echo of Cold War, Nobel Peace Prize goes to Ukraine, Russia, Belarus rights campaigners,” Reuters, 07 October 2022